After an extremely stable 2023, the Indian rupee started 2024 on a promising note and has turned out to be the best-performing Asian currency so far in January, appreciating 0.1 per cent despite 2 per cent rise in the dollar index. All other Asian currencies depreciated by around 1.4-4 per cent during the month. The local currency regained its ground against the greenback on the back of foreign portfolio inflows, said market participants.
After a significant 9.9% depreciation in FY26, the Indian rupee has shown comparative stability in the first half of FY27, depreciating by only 1.1%, attributed to regulatory interventions and measures to attract foreign capital, despite ongoing global pressures from rising crude oil prices and foreign investor outflows.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran will not succumb to "bullying" from the US and Israel, vowing to protect national interests amidst escalating West Asian hostilities. During his visit to New Delhi for the BRICS summit, Pezeshkian also discussed strengthening bilateral ties with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and advocated for local currencies in BRICS trade, positioning Iran as a strategic energy and transport partner.
Xi brought in asymmetrical power play by stating that India should have 'strategic cognition' and 'strategic judgement made on the basis of the stage of development the two countries are at'. This is a very nuanced way of asserting China's coercive diplomatic posture and reflects Beijing's penchant to unleash border instability at will, restrict rare earth metal exports, exert pressure on India at global and regional orders, asserts China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
Inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR (B), deposits have significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a more than 1 per cent depreciation of the rupee against the dollar this week. Analysts point to fading RBI support measures, tepid interest due to rising global bond yields, and narrowing interest rate spreads compared to 2013 as key challenges.
India's Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that the country's balance of payments (BoP) pressure is expected to remain a continuous challenge due to rising imports, commodity dependence, high global interest rates, and intense competition for capital.
Non-resident Indians are increasingly investing in luxury homes in India, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Iran war. This trend is observed across major cities like Mumbai, Bengaluru, and the National Capital Region, with developers noting a significant rise in NRI pre-sales. While some see it as a temporary shift, others believe India is becoming a stable, long-term investment destination for NRIs, especially those from West Asia.
The rupee has been among the The RBI uses the Iran-US peace deal to bolster its forex reserves.
New Delhi must look for formal, institutional statements issued directly from Washington rather than rely on casual pronouncements meant for local audiences, notes Ambassador Rajasekhar.
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The rupee, which was the worst performing Asian currency in 2025 and also in January, was the best performing Asian currency on Tuesday.
The Indian rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar due to rising crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor selling, and weak domestic equity market sentiment.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
The rupee has depreciated by 0.6 per cent so far in the current financial year.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant slump in early trade, mirroring weak global trends, as escalating tensions in West Asia, particularly a drone attack on the UAE's Barakah nuclear facility, pushed crude oil prices higher. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for May 18, 2026.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 52 paise to settle at 93.35 against the US dollar, driven by failed US-Iran peace talks, surging crude oil prices due to a potential US blockade of Iranian ports, and a global flight to the greenback. This geopolitical uncertainty is also leading to foreign capital withdrawal from domestic equities.
The rupee slumped 5 per cent in 2025 as persistent capital outflows from foreign investors, alongside heightened dollar demand from importers, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.
'Once the currency goes out of the hand, then possibly your major challenge is that it will not come back.'
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower due to investor caution over rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, and fresh fuel price hikes, which have revived inflation concerns.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to citizens to adopt austerity measures, including avoiding destination weddings abroad and reducing edible oil consumption, to mitigate the impact of the West Asia crisis on India's economy.
The rupee witnessed its worst single-day decline in around two months since November 21, 2025, due to demand for dollars among importers, said dealers. The maturing short positions in the non-deliverable forwards market further weighed on the local currency.
Indian stock markets concluded Tuesday's trading session lower, reversing intraday gains due to late-session selling in blue-chip stocks like HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. The decline was primarily driven by the Indian rupee hitting a new record low against the US dollar and elevated global crude oil prices, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties.
We who were dreaming of being the third largest economy in dollar terms, have slid back to sixth, thanks to the falling rupee. We are moving about with begging bowls for investments and trade opportunities, which will be a while in materialising, if ever, notes Shreekant Sambrani.
'Even if the war ends tomorrow, which is unlikely, and we go back to the pre-war status quo, the world will still need some time to get over the sudden shock of oil price increases.'
Importers are rushing to hedge their dollar positions amid the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the American currency and expectations of further volatility even as exporters are holding off after suffering mark-to-market (MTM) losses on earlier hedges.
Delhi should keep all its options open in what is essentially a transitional period in the geopolitics of energy rather than remain a gatekeeper serving Trump's 'America First', suggests Ambasssador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
'I don't see 88 per dollar now.'
'Calibrated depreciation will help rebalance external fundamentals, offset some of the tariff differentials with competitors, improve the competitiveness of domestic substitutes vis-a-vis Chinese imports, and contribute to the easing of financial conditions at a time when the inflation rate is unusually low,' explains Sajjid Z Chinoy, head of Asia Economics at JP Morgan.
Starting Wednesday, October 1, foreigners in India have the option to submit a 'digital arrival card' online instead of the paper card.
India's forex reserves declined $5.24 billion to $617.23 billion for the week ending February 9, according to weekly data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday. The forex kitty stood at $622.5 billion for the week ended February 2. However, in the current fiscal, the forex reserves have increased $50.28 billion, the RBI data showed.
The rupee has remained largely stable against the US greenback in the current calendar year (CY 2024), depreciating by just 0.59 per cent so far. However, it has considerably weakened against the euro and pound. The local currency has depreciated by 1.6 per cent against the euro and 5.6 per cent against the pound, as both currencies strengthened against the dollar during this period.
The recent depreciation of the rupee along with sharp fall in the country's foreign exchange (FX) reserves has sparked a debate whether stability of the exchange rate is necessary and desirable. The rupee was one of the least volatile currencies among peers for almost two years before the current downward pressure started in September after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rate.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
GST 2.0 may cushion consumers against US tariffs, but like the 2019 corporate tax cut, it risks being another tactical fix rather than a structural growth strategy, expects Debashis Basu.
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
The rupee slipped by 4 paise to close at 77.59 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a negative trend in domestic equities and unabated foreign fund outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.56 against the greenback, and finally settled at 77.59, down 4 paise over its previous close. During the trading session, the rupee touched an intra-day low of 77.67 and a high of 77.51.
